MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wanted to take a closer look at where this buildup could be heading, so we've called retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan. He's a former commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Middle East. Between 2015 2017, he led teams of U.S. and allied forces that planned and executed combat operations in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen, and he's with us now. Admiral, thank you so much for joining us.
KEVIN DONEGAN: Good morning, Michel. Thank you. Great to be here.
MARTIN: So as our colleague Greg Myre just said, this buildup is based on Navy assets and fighter jets, mostly on aircraft carriers. What does that tell you in terms of what any possible military action might be targeting and trying to achieve?
DONEGAN: Well, I think there's one certainty that we know, and the certainty is that the president is trying to add pressure for the Iranians to negotiate in good faith. That we can probably all agree on. And to add that pressure, you need a force in place that's capable of the right size, and, also, you want to articulate a will to use it. So I think that's been there. What we don't know, as you just heard, really, is we don't know what missions the president has told the Central Command commander to be ready to execute, so to speak. So those can range from something that lasts a short period of time to a long period of time. But if you look at what the nuclear - I mean, what the negotiations are about now, it's about nuclear enrichment. It's about ballistic missiles that Iran has, and it's also about the use of their militia. So you would probably expect that it'd be something that gets at those kinds of things.
MARTIN: So is it possible that this buildup could have the opposite effect, that it could actually pressure and actually sort of incite Iran further?
DONEGAN: I think that the buildup - you know, looking at it through the Iranian eyes, what do they see when they look out the window now is that you - that the force that's there is capable, and they know what it can do because they saw how American assets and weapons performed before. I think they understand that. And each time in the past the Iranians have been put in a position like this, they have tended to negotiate, rather than go force on force.
MARTIN: Well, you know the country's supreme leader has talked of - I mean, as this buildup has been proceeding, the country's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has talked of sinking U.S. warships. Is their military capable of doing that?
DONEGAN: Well, you hear the Iranians and the supreme leader saying this - what we'd expect them to say right now, that they're going to attack in great force, that they're going to sink, you know, U.S. ships, that they're going to impact and attack U.S. facilities in the region. They said that last time before the strike on Fordo. And last time, though, they struck back in - with - almost telegraphed what they were going to do. I would expect this time, if they are attacked, that they wouldn't do that, and they would try to use these thousands of missiles they have to get at U.S. forces. But as you know, part of what's been put in place has been a defensive forces for just - not just us, but for us and our allies. And part of any offensive operation we would do would be focused on blunting any kind of retaliation the Iranians could do.
MARTIN: Well, you know, the administration has sort of floated the idea of regime change. In Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. needed to send in ground troops to do that. I think most Americans remember that. Iran is a bigger country with a much bigger military. So what can the U.S. realistically accomplish?
DONEGAN: Well, when it comes to regime change, I agree with what we just heard. It - that's always - there's - nobody's going to have a crystal ball on what the end result of any kind of regime change will be, whether that's the removal of the supreme leader or such. What we do know is that Iran - if the supreme leader will be removed, that isn't necessarily going to change those that are controlling the country. So what we don't know is what their reaction would be. If the supreme leader wasn't there or some elements of his leadership wasn't there, is that go to change the direction that they're heading?
MARTIN: Before we let you go - 30 seconds left here - if President Trump does decide to strike Iran and Iran strikes back, do you think that could unleash a wider war?
DONEGAN: I think what we would see is not necessarily a wider war. But when Iran strikes back, depending on what it hit, could then further escalate the actions that the U.S. was going to take to respond to that. So that could go back and forth for a couple iterations. How long that goes and how deep is really going to be dependent on the events as they unfold.
MARTIN: That is retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, former commander of the Combined Maritime Forces in the Middle East. Admiral, thank you so much for joining us and sharing these insights.
DONEGAN: Thanks, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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