STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
It's Election Day - the end of a season of voting and the start of finding out the count. It's a midterm election that has set one record after another.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
A record number of lawmakers chose to retire this year. Voters may retire some more. Others have fought for their jobs in the most expensive campaign in U.S. history, and President Trump's popularity sits at near-historic lows.
INSKEEP: Republicans arrive at this day in control of both Houses of Congress, while Democrats have a chance to capture at least one.
MARTIN: In a minute, we'll talk about all this with pollster Christine Matthews, but we're going to begin with the news.
INSKEEP: NPR's Stephen Fowler is in Des Moines, Iowa, this election morning. Stephen, good morning.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Good morning.
INSKEEP: How has the feeling in this country changed over the past two years that you've been traveling around, covering politics?
FOWLER: When President Trump returned to office, I spent a lot of time in places like Georgia, where I live, and North Carolina - they were expected to be some of the most expensive, hotly contested places - and also perennial purple places like Pennsylvania. But this second term's seen a string of unpopular policies that have rocked the economy. And it's taken me to places you frankly would not believe would be competitive, like Little Rock, Arkansas. In October alone, I've driven more than 2,000 miles across states that nobody had on their bingo card as deciding who controls Congress - Kansas, Mississippi and right here in Iowa - all because of the unpopularity of the president's agenda.
INSKEEP: OK. Unpopular with the majority of voters, which has often been true. But how does that translate into Republicans struggling even in very red states like Mississippi?
FOWLER: Ultimately, voters say it's a mismatch in priorities. We have polling that say they're concerned about the war in Iran, rising gas prices - even things that aren't directly economic, like corruption, the Epstein files, handling of immigration. At the same time, they see the president focus on ballrooms and arches and a reflecting pool instead of reflecting what they want the federal government to focus on.
INSKEEP: I see what you did there. Please continue.
FOWLER: To be clear, Democrats aren't that popular either. But in many of these places that are more conservative, those nominees on the left are offering something different than the Republican Party and the national Democratic Party image.
INSKEEP: OK. So we know who's favorite. But here's my favorite thing about elections, Stephen. We're in a world obsessed with data, obsessed with predictions. We all stare at polls. But human beings are unpredictable. We don't truly know the outcome. So what are both parties doing now to shape that?
FOWLER: There are dozens of House races where both parties are spending large amounts of money to get out the vote today. We're talking tens of millions of dollars in districts in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, not to mention the nonstop avalanche of cash flowing into these statewide Senate races that will decide the upper chamber, like Texas, Ohio, Alaska. I mean, to sum it up, the Republican closing message in part is, give us two more years to fix things, while Democrats say that they've had two years too many.
INSKEEP: What do you get out of early voting data here?
FOWLER: There's a notable increase in Black voter turnout, especially in the South, notable among young voters, and pretty much every group that tends to support Democrats. So that could be one of the big storylines coming tomorrow morning.
INSKEEP: And now let's focus in on Iowa, where you are right now. It's one of those unexpected places that you mentioned earlier. What are you watching?
FOWLER: Well, for one, the weather. You might not be able to hear it, but it's raining here, and it's supposed to rain across much of the middle of the country today. And that's a pretty good metaphor for the election too. Iowa has competitive races for governor, U.S. Senate, three of four House races, forecasted to be very close and maybe favorable for Democrats. But it remains to be seen whether those results turn out to be a little puddle or an overwhelming downpour for Democrats.
INSKEEP: OK. We'll find out how the forecast turned out sometime tomorrow or maybe in the days after. NPR's Stephen Fowler is in Des Moines. Thanks so much.
FOWLER: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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